The State of Play July 25, 2024

This inaugural post is one that is sure to keep me humble since it is 103 days until election day and much can and will change.

A Blue Wave may be on the horizon fed by the energy of newly engaged Democrats since Kamala Harris has quickly emerged as the party's standard bearer bringing (relative) youth and excitement to what has hitherto been a moribund slog.  With the country appearing so closely divided, small movements can have an outsized impact when binary choices are all that is on offer.

One of the first hints of this impending change may have been yesterday's stock market rout.  Could it be that so called "smart money" has awakened to the fact that a Harris adminstration likely means the trump tax breaks are going away and with them the outsized corporate profits of the past several years?  And could it mean that capital gains taxes will rise as the current extreme imbalance between the value of Capital and Labor is at least partially reversed?  Better book those profits before you have to share them with everyday Americans, eh boyz?

Another, and perhaps more convincing signal will be the Harris' VP pick.  I think it most likely comes down to a choice between Governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper of North Carolina.  If the Dems are concerned about must win swing state PA then Shapiro is the choice to boost their chances there as he is very popular in the state.  However, if they are feeling good about Pennsylvania and other to-and-fro states then adding Cooper to the ticket puts North Carolina in play and with it the potential Blue Wave.  Insofaras Senator Kelly of Arizona and Governors Whitman (Michigan) and Beshear (Kentucky) are concerned, it just doesn't feel like they bring enough balance or (electoral) votes to the ticket to make sense to my, admittedly amateur, analysis.

As I am new to blogging and trying to figure out how to format this along with other layout and structural issues I will just state here that you arefree to comment, HOWEVER, personal attacks and hateful rants are NOT acceptable, they will be deleted and you will be blocked, no warning, no second chance. (And I get to decide which is what, no crying in baseball!)